# A web site (www.medicine.ox.ac.uk/bandolier/band64/b64-7.html) for home pregnancy tests cites the following: “When the subjects using the test were women who collected and tested their own samples, the overall sensitivity was 75%. Specificity was also low, in the range 52% to 75%.” Assume the lower value for the specificity. Suppose a subject has a positive test and that 30% of women taking pregnancy tests are actually pregnant. What number is closest to the probability of pregnancy given the positive test? (Hints, watch Lecture 3 at around 7 minutes for a similar example. Also, there's a lot of Bayes' rule problems and descriptions out there, for example here's one for HIV testing. Note, discussions of Bayes' rule can get pretty heady. So if it's new to you, stick to basic treatments of the problem. Also see Chapter 3 Question 5.)

## Home » A web site (www.medicine.ox.ac.uk/bandolier/band64/b64-7.html) for home pregnancy tests cites the following: “When the subjects using the test were women who collected and tested their own samples, the overall sensitivity was 75%. Specificity was also low, in the range 52% to 75%.” Assume the lower value for the specificity. Suppose a subject has a positive test and that 30% of women taking pregnancy tests are actually pregnant. What number is closest to the probability of pregnancy given the positive test? (Hints, watch Lecture 3 at around 7 minutes for a similar example. Also, there’s a lot of Bayes’ rule problems and descriptions out there, for example here’s one for HIV testing. Note, discussions of Bayes’ rule can get pretty heady. So if it’s new to you, stick to basic treatments of the problem. Also see Chapter 3 Question 5.)

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