Practice More Quizzes:
Q:
What must be the most prominent component of a time series data set to apply an Average Forecast method?
Q:
Use your Average Forecast to calculate within-sample forecasts for the entire dataset. What is the forecast error for the 14th of September 2021 (to 3 decimal places)? Make sure you have the un-rounded figure in your spreadsheet!
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Using your Average Forecast, what is the Absolute Error of the forecast for the 16th of September 2021 (to 3 decimal places)? Make sure you have the un-rounded figure in your spreadsheet!
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Using your Average Forecast, what is the Squared Error of the forecast for the 20th of September 2021 (to 3 decimal places)? Make sure you have the un-rounded figure in your spreadsheet!
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For the Average Forecast, what is the Mean Squared Error (to 3 decimal places)? Make sure you have the un-rounded figure in your spreadsheet!
Q:
Create a copy of the MQD Sheet and perform a Naïve Forecast for the 1st of November 2021. What is your forecast (to 3 decimal places)? Make sure you have the un-rounded figure in your spreadsheet!
Q:
Using the Naïve Forecasting method, calculate within-sample forecasts for the entire dataset. What is the forecast error for the 14th of September 2021 (to 3 decimal places)? Make sure you have the un-rounded figure in your spreadsheet!
Q:
How can we compare the results of our Average Forecast versus our Naïve Forecast?
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Create a copy of the MQD Sheet and perform a 7-period Moving Average Forecast for the 1st of November 2021. What is your forecast (to 3 decimal places)? Make sure you have the un-rounded figure in your spreadsheet!
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What criteria should be used in deciding the number periods to be included in a Moving Average Forecast? (multiple options may apply).
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Using the 7-period Moving Average Method, what is the forecast for the 2nd of November 2021 (to 3 decimal places)? Make sure you have the un-rounded figure in your spreadsheet!
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For the 7-period Moving Average Forecast, what is the Mean Squared Error (to 3 decimal places)? Make sure you have the un-rounded figure in your spreadsheet!
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For the 7-period Moving Average Forecast, what is the Mean Absolute Error (to 3 decimal places)? Make sure you have the un-rounded figure in your spreadsheet!
Q:
Create a copy of the MQD Sheet to create forecasts using Simple Exponential Smoothing (use the formula in our earlier resources) using a starting value of alpha = 0.2 What is the value of the seed in the Forecast column (to 3 decimal places)? Make sure you have the un-rounded figure in your spreadsheet!
Q:
What is the value of the forecast for the 1st of November 2021 (to 3 decimal places)? Make sure you have the un-rounded figure in your spreadsheet!
Q:
What is the value of the Mean Squared Error (to 3 decimal places)? Make sure you have the un-rounded figure in your spreadsheet!
Q:
Use Solver to minimise the Mean Squared Error by changing the value of alpha. What is the optimal value of alpha (to 3 decimal places)? Make sure you have the un-rounded figure in your spreadsheet!
Q:
For what type of data set would Simple Exponential Smoothing not be an optimal forecast method? (multiple options may apply)
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